Illustration
from Inventing the Future
InDesign document
©2019 Charlene Brown
Because AI has the ability to process “big data” it could be applied to huge problems involving complex systems. However, in order to be reliable in forecasting the future, it needs to incorporate the intuitive aspect of human intelligence. How can that be programmed?
·
It is possible that properly coded algorithms
might eventually enable a computer to execute heuristic processes (roughly
defined as common sense), but it is more likely that heuristic processes can serve
as a good first step in data analytics by synthesizing data into a form AI can
handle
· There are apps that make political forecasts by using AI to comb through Twitter – sort of like a really big Delphi study* without having Delphi participants’ opportunity to reevaluate their input.
* The Delphi Technique can be an especially useful research methodology when there is no true or knowable answer, such as in policy decision-making, or long-range forecasting. A wide range of opinions can be included, which can be useful in cases where relying on a single expert would lead to bias.
· The World Economic Forum Global Risks analysis, which I will write about in a few days, describes a method of quantifying expert opinion that sounds similar to a Delphi study.
·
Design thinking considers input from
experts in different fields – marketing, design and engineering.
