The terrible and avoidable carbon footprint of war

The war in Ukraine drags on
crayon, watercolour and ink
©2025 Charlene Brown

I happened to read about the two Advisories on Climate Change and Human Rights listed below in The Daily Difference - The Carbon Almanac the day after the Trump/Putin negotiations in Alaska made ‘progress’ but did not end the Russian-Ukraine war.  Couldn’t help wondering if, among the many immediate horrors of warfare, its long term cumulative (and avoidable) carbon emissions, and their effect on global heating was ever considered by either Russia or America. Or anybody.

1. On July 3, 2025, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) issued Advisory Opinion No.32, a 234 page document that is the longest advisory opinion that has ever been issue by the IACHR  ̶  pretty much guaranteeing that very few people will read it other than those who are being paid to do so.  In it, the court says “states have legal obligations to protect people alive today and future generations from the impacts of climate breakdown,” ruling that access to a stable climate is a human right that states must protect. Some of the actions that must be taken include working on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, cooperating internationally, guarding against the threat of climate disinformation, adapting to evolving needs and utilizing the best available science to inform decisions. 
2. On July 23, 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is the United Nations’ top court, released an advisory opinion stating that “countries could be in violation of international law if they fail to take measures to protect the planet from climate change, and nations harmed by its effects could be entitled to reparations.” It affirms a simple truth of climate justice: Those who did the least to fuel this crisis deserve protection, reparations and a future.” 

Thermovoltaic systems

Lafarge Exshaw - the largest cement plant in Canada

watercolour and coloured pencil

©2025 Charlene Brown

Thermovoltaics is a technology that converts heat into electricity. Waste heat is everywhere. Globally, of the energy used to power the industries that the world needs such as cement and steel, approximately 60% is simply lost as waste heat. 

Industrial activities account for about one third of total energy consumption and urgently need to cut CO2 emissions.

In 2022, the energy intensity of the cement sector reached 100 kWh per tonne, with fossil fuels as the primary source of thermal energy. Globally, iron and steel manufacturing consumes 8% of total energy demand, contributing to 2.6 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of CO2 emissions annually. 

Addressing the emissions from these industries and finding ways to capture and productively use the vast amounts of industrial waste heat are critical steps in the fight against climate change.

Thawing Permafrost

Melting glaciers and thawing permafrost on Bylot Island NU
watercolour and crayon
©2025 Charlene Brown 

As the Arctic warms faster than any region on Earth, attention has largely been focused on the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice. But major changes are also taking place on land, and one of the most striking is the thawing of vast swaths of permafrost, the frozen layer of soil underlying the Arctic tundra and taiga. 

This thawing compounds the effects of climate change by releasing vast amounts of GHGs.  It is already changing the Arctic landscape, causing landslides, draining lakes, altering vegetation and even beginning to shift animal and bird species habitats.  Ecosystem changes make it increasingly difficult for subsistence indigenous Inuit and Arctic animals to find food. 

Lakeside permafrost slumps  ̶  an increasingly frequent occurrence

watercolour and crayon

©2025 Charlene Brown

Permafrost slumps result when the ice in the permafrost melts and the soil collapses.  As slumping expands, parts of the landscape are being transformed into nothing but mud, silt, and peat.

Some areas in the Arctic appear to be emitting even more carbon than they are storing, worsening climate change impacts by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events and wildfires.

The Plan for 1150 Words in 2025

Front cover: Visualization of the Anthropocene

                        Crowfoot Glacier, Canadian Rockies (1910, 1960, 2010)
watercolour, Photoshop™ and InDesign™
©2023 Charlene Brown

1. Visualization of the Anthropocene: I will complete this series of essays and illustrations of the increasingly drastic climate effects of the Anthropocene, with emphasis on Arctic warming. 
2. Travel painting: I have two painting trips planned, one to an artist colony, and the other to see my great-grandchildren.  Neither will include the Seattle airport.
3. Publish Time Travel with a bag of Crayons

4. Decluttering computer and hardcopy files.  And art supplies.

5. AI Training – learning more about the AI capabilities on my computer, as well as training that AI to understand my way of thinking in order to refine my ideas and, possibly, my paintings.  (Apparently this can be done!)

Urban Agriculture

Downtown on the Farm
watercolour and crayon
©2024 Charlene Brown

 

Urban farming can minimize the carbon footprint associated with mass production and distribution of food, by localizing produce supply. The concept may help to make healthy food both affordable and accessible to those who need it, addressing issues of urban food insecurity.

Rooftop or vertical gardens represent a very efficient use of space producing tons of fresh, healthy food as well as removing CO2 from the air. 

Urban agriculture can include horticulture (often hydroponic, rather than soil-based), beekeeping and, at ground level, small livestock production (generally limited to poultry and eggs, but sometimes extending to pigs, goats and sheep), and aquaculture.

 

Land Use Competition*

Fighting back on the front lines of climate change

watercolour and crayon

©2022 Charlene Brown

'Fighting Back' is based on a combination of internet images of the Great Green Wall in Niger, Senegal and Mali.  This African-led initiative, only begun in 2007, has made amazing progress on the ambitious plan to grow and/or restore an 8000km belt of biodiversity across the continent from Senegal on the Atlantic to Djibouti on the Red Sea. This formerly lush region, known as the Sahel, had already fallen victim to some of the challenges that humanity could be facing this century ─ desertification, drought, food shortages, migration and international terrorism.

Land use is one of the best tools available to lock away tons of carbon dioxide and achieve our climate goals. But it’s also crucial for growing food. Can these two future demands co-exist?

It may be possible to increase food production, protect habitats, lock away tons of carbon, and expand renewable energy production to keep warming below 1.5 °C — all of that, without any of these land-based changes infringing on each other’s space. 

A scenario developed by Shell Oil shows the fairly drastic land use changes that would be needed in order to keep temperature increases to below 1.5 °C by 2100. Much of this change would rely on the undeveloped land across the planet to capture carbon and produce clean energy — which would mean expanding solar and wind farms across this territory, capturing huge amounts of carbon in soils and habitats through nature-based solutions like reforestation and soil protection, and some amount of carbon capture and storage. 

Apparently even the biggest changes required to meet the climate target (nature-based solutions, which require by far the largest areas of land) wouldn’t encroach on food production. In fact, by 2100 according to the model, 61% of global cropland would also play host to some kind of nature-based solution. One standout example was biochar (defined in Glossary page 60), which could provide the largest carbon sequestration from a single nature-based solution in farming, the researchers found. Other examples are conservation tillage, planting nitrogen-fixing legumes, and agroforestry.  As well, cropland would be able to expand into pasture land, formerly used for livestock production, that will decline because market pressures would apply higher costs to the production of high-emissions food.

To meet climate targets, a greater area of carbon-sequestering forests would need to be protected, and forests would need to be expanded through reforestation schemes, as well. According to the model, that would also be possible with the available land. 

The goal of on-going research is to upend the idea that we need to protect either nature, climate, or food. Instead, it has been shown to be possible to fit the land for major human needs, while protecting and restoring land.

·         *  Excerpted from an article by Emma Bryce in Anthropocene online, November 22, 2024

·          

Climate Change Education

Winter in Edmonton

watercolour and crayon

©2016 Charlene Brown

Awareness of the consequences of global warming is gradually showing up in university curricula everywhere, mainly in environmental and physical science programs. This won’t be enough. Climate change courses should be made mandatory for every student, in every discipline. Climate change impacts us all, and we need everyone’s skills to address it, from art to business to health.

This is especially important in northern areas, where average temperatures are increasing even more rapidly than in temperate regions. I attended university in the city illustrated above, about sixty years ago.  We hadn’t heard about global warming at the time and if we had would have considered it a fine idea, unaware of the associated threats to health, extreme weather events, wildfires and flooding, forced displacement, pressures on mental health, and increased hunger and poor nutrition in places where people cannot grow or find sufficient food.

Some universities are even developing degree programs related to climate change.  Examples are the  Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth at the University of Chicago, which will offer undergraduate and graduate degrees with a focus on climate systems engineering, and Columbia University, where a dual degree in urban design and climate has been added.*

*excerpted from Carbon Almanac Network dailydifference@thecarbonalmanac.org 1 November 2024 

Effect of de-carbonization on energy employment

 Projected changes in global energy employment by sector and scenario, 2022-2030

In 2021 it was estimated that weaning energy systems off fossil fuels would result in 9.5 million fewer fossil fuel jobs world-wide. But in most regions, new renewable energy jobs would more than make up for these losses, with 17.4 new alternate energy jobs. 

It was said that manufacturing and installation of alternate energy systems could potentially account for about one third of the new jobs.

·        *  Excerpted from an article by Sarah Deweerdt in Anthropocene magazine 

Another visualization of the changes in energy employment since 2019 is shown in the graph below by the International Energy Agency.  Note: 2024 employment estimated.

The decarbonization of the Arctic

Pond Inlet

watercolour and crayon

Charlene Brown, 2017

Two of the concerns that represent areas where we might have some leverage in our up-coming negotiations with ‘Trump Country’ are also essential  factors in Canada’s crucial decarbonization program. These are Arctic security and energy security – areas in which we are already behind schedule in targets pertaining to the 2015 Paris agreement.

Climate change is causing greater and more rapid temperature increases in the Arctic.  The reason is simple.  Ice and snow are white and therefore reflect a lot of the incoming sunlight. After an initial warming and melting of the snow and ice, the white surface gets replaced with a darker surface of the open ocean, which absorbs more sunlight, thus leading to additional local warming.  

Parts of the coastline are ice-free for longer periods and the ‘Northwest Passage’ is navigable for several weeks very year. This could enable the shipment of supplies which now must be flown in, lowering the now-horrendous cost of food, but also makes the mineral-rich area more vulnerable.

Compounding all the climate-related problems in the Arctic is the fact that per person carbon emissions are much higher there because of the widespread use of fossil fuels for heating and generation of electricity.

A network of small modular nuclear reactors would solve a lot of problems.

The site of the Climate Change Conference, COP29

Baku, Azerbaijan

watercolour and marker

©2024 Charlene Brown

This painting is a composite of pictures found on the internet. I’ve never been to Baku (and won’t be going for COP29) but I got petty close in 2017 when I was in Tabriz, Iran, an 8-hour drive away

The next major international UNFCCC* event is the Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, starting in a few days on November 11. 

At the heart of this year’s negotiations is the post-2025 climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). High-emitting, wealthy Global North states, like Canada, owe a “climate debt” to Global South countries, who have contributed the least to climate change yet are facing the brunt of its impacts. Climate finance is essential to the energy transition.

*UNFCCC stands for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention has near universal membership (198 Parties) and is the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement.Ba

Top Ten Future Disruptions in Society, Economy, Environment, Politics, and Health

Fig. 1 from Policy Horizons report 

According to a (dismal) 2024 report, Disruptions on the Horizon by Policy Horizons Canada:

“Predicting the next big upheaval may not be possible, but it is crucial to explore possible disruptions and anticipate potential future scenarios. Even seemingly distant or improbable events and circumstances can suddenly become reality, while overlapping disruptions can lead to compounded societal impacts.”

The impact and likelihood of 35 possible future disruptions, categorized into five domains: society, economy, environment, politics/geopolitics, and health, is shown on the chart above.  Only four appear to have any good aspects:

• The North experiences an economic boom,
• Geo-engineering takes off,
• Biodata is widely monetized, and
• Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory.

I have my doubts about geo-engineering, and was relieved to see it is not among the most likely disruptions listed in the report (see below). In fact, only one of the ‘possibly good’ disruptions, Biodata is widely monetized, is listed among the 10 most likely occurrences. 

Unfortunately, of the remaining nine ‘most likely’ four also make the ‘highest impact' list:

• People cannot tell what is true and what is not
• Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse
• Emergency response is overwhelmed
• Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure

The chart at the beginning of this report summary also shows the time when the disruption could occur.  This is represented by the shape of the icons and is divided into time segments of 3-5 years (triangle), 6-8 years (square), and 9+ years (hexagon).

As well, the report presents a hypothetical timeline showing when the top ten disruption, (roughly, those in the upper right quadrant of the above chart) will occur. I have not included this timeline as I think it’s misleadingly precise about highly speculative opinion-based numbers.

Reducing the food component of your carbon footprint

 Mt. Meager
watercolour and crayon
©2020 Charlene Brown

A Canada/UKstudy published in Nature Food, a peer-reviewed online journal covering research, reviews and comment on all aspects of food production, processing, distribution and consumption, outlined the environmental and nutritional benefits of reducing consumption of red meats (significant) and dairy products (not so much).

They found that replacing half of the red meat in the average Canadian diet with plant proteins would shrink an individual’s food-related carbon footprint by a striking 25%. But replacing half the dairy products with plant alternatives only erased 5% of dietary emissions.

The relatively small size of the environmental gains for dairy substitutes were put into perspective when they were weighed against some of the nutritional losses which would result from such a shift.  

The most striking figure was that a 50% dairy replacement would lead to a 14% increase in the number of people experiencing a calcium deficit in Canada—an ingredient that is critical for the growth of healthy muscles and bones.

The study produced much more detail, and many more measurements, ratios, and percentages, but I am only mentioning the most easily interpreted results   ̶  coincidentally, the results which lead to dietary recommendations I agree with.  To a certain extent, I'm already following these recommendations in an effort to reduce my own carbon footprint. It’s not difficult to eat red meat less frequently, but I’d hate to try to live without cheese.

I’ve used the painting of Mt. Meager to illustrate this post because it seems to be my only painting that includes livestock. They started out as horses (by no mean a significant part of the Canadian diet) but for now they are going to be cattle.

Solving two Anthropocene problems with a self-sustaining loop

The cave and outflow from the Middle Springs

watercolour and crayon

©2024 Charlene Brown

Another proposed combination of technologies may result in a synergistic cost saving by creating a self-sustaining loop.  CO₂ removed from the atmosphere by Direct Air Capture (DAC) is stored in deep, hot aquifers.  Heat brought to the surface could then be used to power the DAC process.  Thus the excess CO₂  itself could reduce the high cost of removing it from the atmosphere. 

Like the nearby geothermal source I wrote about eight years ago, however, this particular hot spring would not be a suitable location for such a self-sustaining loop.  

 

Are we reaching a tipping point in global heating?

Alberta Wildfire
watercolour
©2023 Charlene Brown

The National Centers for Environmental Information in the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides environmental data, products, and services covering the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun.

NOAA Chief Scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick said that the findings of their 2023 climate analysis were astounding. “Not only was 2023 the warmest year in NOAA’s 174-year climate record — it was the warmest by far.”

The impacts of climate change are happening here and now, like extreme weather events that are becoming more frequent and more severe. There were many extreme weather events in 2023, along with record-low sea ice coverage and catastrophic wildfires. In Canada, 45.7 million acres burned, 2.6 times the previous record.

One of the confounding factors making forecasting the future more difficult, which I wrote about three years ago is the phenomenon of tipping points.  These are actions of a complex system which has become unstable.

Are we reaching a tipping point in global heating?

Read Decimation doesn’t begin to describe what happened in Lytton. 

Or have we already tipped?

How climate change worsens heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and floods*

1. Hotter, longer heatwaves:   The intense heatwaves that hit southern Europe and the southern US and Mexico in July 2023 would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change.  And these events are no longer rare. If global warming reaches 2C above the pre-industrial period these events are expected to happen every two to five years.

As well as happening more frequently, heatwaves are becoming longer and more intense in many places.

This can happen as a result of heat domes, which are areas of high pressure where hot air is pushed down and trapped in place, causing temperatures to soar over large areas.  One theory suggests higher temperatures in the Arctic (which has warmed more than four times faster than the global average) are causing the jet stream to slow, increasing the likelihood of heat domes.

2. Longer droughts:  Longer and more intense heatwaves can worsen droughts by drying out soil. This makes the air above warm up more quickly, leading to more intense heat.  Increased demand for water from humans, especially farmers, in hot weather puts even more stress on the water supply.

Climate change has made droughts at least 100 times more likely.

3. More fuel for wildfires:  Climate change is making the weather conditions needed for wildfires to spread more likely. Extreme and long-lasting heat draws more and more moisture out of the ground and vegetation. These tinder-dry conditions provide fuel for fires, which can spread at an incredible speed, particularly if winds are strong.

Rising temperatures may also increase the likelihood of lightning in the world's northernmost forests, increasing the risk of fires. Canada experienced by far its  worst wildfire season on record in 2023, with around 18 million hectares (45 million acres) burned.

Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the extreme "fire weather" conditions in eastern Canada that allowed the fires to spread, Extreme wildfires are projected to become more frequent and intense in future across the globe. This is due to the combined effects of shifting land use and climate change.

4. More extreme rain:  For every 1C rise in average temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. The heavy rainfall was made as much as 50 times more likely by climate change, Globally, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events has increased over most land regions due to human activity. And heavy precipitation will generally become more frequent and intense with further warming,

*Outline of an article by Mark Poynting and Esme Stallard, BBC News Climate & Science

 

Impressionist version of Doughnut Economics in a Circular Economy

The Doughnut

watercolour and crayon

©2023 Charlene Brown

The circular economy represents a shift from a 'take-make-waste' linear economy to an economic system based on the reuse and regeneration of materials or products, especially as a means of continuing production in a sustainable or environmentally friendly way, minimizing waste.

Doughnut economics extends this transformation to encompass a double shift – from a linear economy to a regenerative and distributed economy that looks at sustainable development across a number of different vectors.

The Doughnut is the core concept at the heart of Doughnut Economics.  And here’s a more readable explanation of it.

First published in 2012 in an Oxfam report by Kate Raworth, The Doughnut is a guide for human prosperity in the 21st century, with the aim of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the living planet.

The Doughnut consists of two concentric rings: a social foundation, to ensure that no one is left falling short on life’s essentials, and an ecological ceiling, to ensure that humanity does not collectively overshoot the planetary boundaries that protect Earth's life-supporting systems. Between these two sets of boundaries lies a doughnut-shaped space that is both ecologically safe and socially just: a space in which humanity can thrive.

Can tidal power replace diesel?

Blind Channel
watercolour and crayon
©2023 Charlene Brown

Blind Channel, on the ‘inside passage’ between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbia is scenically spectacular, and may also be a prime location for tidal power production.  Initial testing of the potential for harnessing tidal currents at the Blind Channel off-grid tidal power demonstration project has shown promising results.

The University of Victoria’s Pacific Regional Institute for Marine Energy Discovery (PRIMED) research on tidal turbines and other clean energy sources like wind, solar, and low carbon hydrogen, is supported by the BC government’s Innovative Clean Energy (ICE) Fund. 

PRIMED is also investigating ways to avoid or surmount the recognized problems associated with tidal energy  ̶  the high cost associated with building tidal power stations, and potentially negative environmental effects on marine life.

The Chilling Rise of the Zero-degree Isotherm

Morteratsch Glacier collapse
watercolour
Charlene Brown

Glaciers in Switzerland are shrinking more quickly every year and have lost 10% of their ice volume in the last two years. Tongues of glaciers such as the one pictured are collapsing and many small glaciers have disappeared completely.

The photo on which this painting was based was taken by Sean Gallup in May of last year, prior to the record-breaking heat wave in Europe. In August, the zero-degree isotherm, below which ice melts, rose to record elevations, well over 5000 metres  ̶  higher than many of the mountain peaks in Switzerland.

The main reason for this chilling development is human-induced climate heating. By the middle of the 21st century, a further rise in the zero-degree isotherm of a catastrophic 400 to 650 m can be expected if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unchecked.

Differing Solutions to Climate Change Problems ̶ Achieving more useful perspectives

Bruce Nuclear Generating Station*
watercolour, crayon and marker
©2023 Charlene Brown

The elusive path to net zero is having a rough ride as various stakeholders have very different ideas about how best to achieve our climate change goals.  Unfortunately, debate among federal and provincial governments, various political parties, environmental protest groups, industry lobbyists etc. has become belligerent. Almost everyone is putting most of their effort into attempting to discredit other’s policies and opinions.

For example, I believe nuclear power generation will be an essential component in the eventual elimination of excessive carbon emissions. However, organizations such as the Green Party, with whose objectives I generally agree, are strongly opposed to this method of producing electricity.  They feel that nuclear reactors’ prohibitively expensive construction and generation of huge amounts of radioactive waste outweighs the environmental benefits, whereas proponents of nuclear power generation have confidence that technological developments such as small modular nuclear reactors and ‘spent’ fuel utilization will soon overcome these objections. They also point out that modular reactors could replace horrendously problematic diesel generation of electricity in remote areas such as the Arctic.

In general, in debating the negatives of various programs, a more useful perspective will be achieved by finding such additional positives to the proposed solutions. 

*NB: Bruce Nuclear, one of the largest reactors in the world, is not an example of a small modular reactor.

Another way of achieving a more useful perspective when confronted with different solutions to climate change problems is to consider that they might be not polarizing, but synergistic!  More progress would be made if the various stakeholders could work cooperatively instead of attempting to cancel each other in the battle against catastrophic climate change:

Instead of:
    transitioning away from fossil fuels vs carbon capture

we should have

    transitioning away from fossil fuels plus carbon capture

I wrote about this in a blog post a year and a half ago. 

This concept of differing solutions being synergistic rather than polarizing will be a section of the series of essays and illustrations on visualization of the Anthropocene that I am compiling.

Retro-Shipping into the future

Low carbon transport
watercolour
©2023 Charlene Brown

Almost 90 years after the Hindenburg disaster ended the golden age of airships, interest in lighter-than-air transport is reviving. With low carbon emissions, and no requirement for expensive ground infrastructure like airports or roads, solar electric-powered airships could be a sustainable solution for cargo and passenger transport.

See below for earlier fantasizing on this topic.

Sailing ships are another old technology that may be reborn as the shipping industry looks to decarbonize. Hypothetically, these giant new sails could be inflated or deflated at the push of a button, and would pivot automatically to catch the wind.

Cobalt Lake (©2012 Charlene Brown): painted on the last day of a heli-painting expedition in the Bugaboos – my best plein air painting day ever!

Originally built for heli-skiing, then high-elevation heli-hiking, the whole system of lodges and helicopters in the Bugaboos is conscientiously designed and operated to minimize the carbon footprint.

However, in my book, Inventing the Future, I couldn’t resist pointing out that fantastic plein air painting days such as this will be even better in the future if transportation to the peaks is by electric airship!