The decarbonization of the Arctic

Pond Inlet

watercolour and crayon

Charlene Brown, 2017

Two of the concerns that represent areas where we might have some leverage in our up-coming negotiations with ‘Trump Country’ are also essential  factors in Canada’s crucial decarbonization program. These are Arctic security and energy security – areas in which we are already behind schedule in targets pertaining to the 2015 Paris agreement.

Climate change is causing greater and more rapid temperature increases in the Arctic.  The reason is simple.  Ice and snow are white and therefore reflect a lot of the incoming sunlight. After an initial warming and melting of the snow and ice, the white surface gets replaced with a darker surface of the open ocean, which absorbs more sunlight, thus leading to additional local warming.  

Parts of the coastline are ice-free for longer periods and the ‘Northwest Passage’ is navigable for several weeks very year. This could enable the shipment of supplies which now must be flown in, lowering the now-horrendous cost of food, but also makes the mineral-rich area more vulnerable.

Compounding all the climate-related problems in the Arctic is the fact that per person carbon emissions are much higher there because of the widespread use of fossil fuels for heating and generation of electricity.

A network of small modular nuclear reactors would solve a lot of problems.

One last painted pair – for now

Mount Rundle
watercolour card
©2024 Charlene Brown

This is the mountain as seen from the old highway just west of Banff – a location frequently used by the plein air classes when I attended the Banff School of Fine Arts 70 years ago.

Semi-abstract version

This is the last painted pair in this series.  Next I’m going to try computerpainting (with Photoshop™) variations along the realism/abstract continuum ─ on one painting.

There will be more pairs where both are painted, as I’ve still got lots of those blank watercolour cards.

 

A proactive approach to four potentially awful years

Pangnirtung Fjord*

watercolour and crayon

©2007 Charlene Brown

Most of the articles in the Opinion section of the November 9 Globe & Mail were about ‘Trump Country.’  I read every word of disbelief/ disgust/dismay about the outcome of the American Election, and agreed with almost all of them.

But I have only clipped and saved one article, the relatively positive ‘Taking control of our relationship with Trump’ by Edward Greenspon, Janice Gross Stein, and Drew Fagan. 

The gist of this piece is that discussions with the Trump government must shift from “the most beautiful word in the world” – tariffs – to another subject of which he is fond ─ negotiations.  And the focus should be on “doing things together in areas where we can clearly help them, and sometimes where only we can help.” These would include: Arctic security (hence the painting, above), critical minerals, energy security, and advanced technologies such as AI research, space surveillance, semi-conductor packaging.

*Pangnirtung is the only place in Canada where I’ve actually seen chartreuse arctic poppies. I like these flowers so much that I transplanted them as far away as Yukon in a painting I posted in 2016

Still chipping away at my 50-pack of greeting cards…

Castle Mountain
watercolour card
©2024 Charlene Brown

This is the view of Castle Mountain seen from the TransCanada Highway about halfway between Banff and Lake Louise. This card was a variation on one of the few acceptable Christmas cards I painted last year.

Semi-abstract version

I prefer this to the representational version above, but hardly anyone else does.

 

The site of the Climate Change Conference, COP29

Baku, Azerbaijan

watercolour and marker

©2024 Charlene Brown

This painting is a composite of pictures found on the internet. I’ve never been to Baku (and won’t be going for COP29) but I got petty close in 2017 when I was in Tabriz, Iran, an 8-hour drive away

The next major international UNFCCC* event is the Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, starting in a few days on November 11. 

At the heart of this year’s negotiations is the post-2025 climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). High-emitting, wealthy Global North states, like Canada, owe a “climate debt” to Global South countries, who have contributed the least to climate change yet are facing the brunt of its impacts. Climate finance is essential to the energy transition.

*UNFCCC stands for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention has near universal membership (198 Parties) and is the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement.Ba

Another pair of greeting cards

Lake Minnewanka and Mt. Inglismaldie
watercolour card
©2024 Charlene Brown

This version of Lake Minnewanka was on a Thank you card I painted several months ago.

Semi-abstract version

This card was painted using a technique I outlined in a 2018 blog post about abstracting landscapes I’d paintedpreviously.  (When painting the much smaller greeting card however, the initial rough drawing is done with masking fluid, rather than oil pastel or crayon.) As in the 2018 abstract, I’ve introduced the ‘Hundertwasser’ effect on the deciduous trees.

 

More greeting card paradigm shifts

Camping at Two Jack Lake
watercolour and ink on a greeting card
©2024 Charlene Brown

Semi-Abstract version

 

 

 

 

 

In a blog post on June 16,  I mentioned that I have tried to see and paint things differently, shifting away from realism toward abstraction.  I also said that “sometime soon” I would try painting pairs of greeting cards of the same location, one representational and one semi-abstract (but recognizable), at the same time.

Since then I finished and wrote about the paintings I started on a cruise to Alaska and later re-wrote a series of blog posts on the pschology of creativity.  It turns out that now is the soonest I could manage to start writing about my planned paradigm shift.

I sent the first ‘Camping at Two Jack Lake, above, to one of my granddaughters for her birthday.  She has actually been to this campground near Banff many times. The other went to my sister, who is an artist who prefers to work abstractly herself ─ and is just about the only person I know who prefers my less representational paintings.

 

Top Ten Future Disruptions in Society, Economy, Environment, Politics, and Health

Fig. 1 from Policy Horizons report 

According to a (dismal) 2024 report, Disruptions on the Horizon by Policy Horizons Canada:

“Predicting the next big upheaval may not be possible, but it is crucial to explore possible disruptions and anticipate potential future scenarios. Even seemingly distant or improbable events and circumstances can suddenly become reality, while overlapping disruptions can lead to compounded societal impacts.”

The impact and likelihood of 35 possible future disruptions, categorized into five domains: society, economy, environment, politics/geopolitics, and health, is shown on the chart above.  Only four appear to have any good aspects:

• The North experiences an economic boom,
• Geo-engineering takes off,
• Biodata is widely monetized, and
• Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory.

I have my doubts about geo-engineering, and was relieved to see it is not among the most likely disruptions listed in the report (see below). In fact, only one of the ‘possibly good’ disruptions, Biodata is widely monetized, is listed among the 10 most likely occurrences. 

Unfortunately, of the remaining nine ‘most likely’ four also make the ‘highest impact' list:

• People cannot tell what is true and what is not
• Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse
• Emergency response is overwhelmed
• Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure

The chart at the beginning of this report summary also shows the time when the disruption could occur.  This is represented by the shape of the icons and is divided into time segments of 3-5 years (triangle), 6-8 years (square), and 9+ years (hexagon).

As well, the report presents a hypothetical timeline showing when the top ten disruption, (roughly, those in the upper right quadrant of the above chart) will occur. I have not included this timeline as I think it’s misleadingly precise about highly speculative opinion-based numbers.