According to a (dismal) 2024 report, Disruptions on the Horizon by Policy Horizons Canada:
“Predicting the next big upheaval may not be possible, but it is crucial to explore possible disruptions and anticipate potential future scenarios. Even seemingly distant or improbable events and circumstances can suddenly become reality, while overlapping disruptions can lead to compounded societal impacts.”
The impact and likelihood of 35 possible
future disruptions, categorized into five domains: society, economy,
environment, politics/geopolitics, and health, is shown on the chart above.
Only four appear to have any good aspects:
- The North experiences an economic boom,
- Geo-engineering takes off,
- Biodata is widely monetized, and
- Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory.
I have my doubts about
geo-engineering, and was relieved to see it is not among the most likely disruptions
listed in the report (see below). In fact, only one of the ‘possibly good’ disruptions, Biodata is
widely monetized, is listed among the 10 most likely occurrences.
Unfortunately, of the
remaining nine ‘most likely’ four also make the ‘highest impact' list:
- People cannot tell what is true and what is not
- Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse
- Emergency response is overwhelmed
- Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure
The chart at the
beginning of this report summary also shows the time when the disruption could
occur. This is represented by the shape
of the icons and is divided into time segments of 3-5 years (triangle), 6-8
years (square), and 9+ years (hexagon).
As well, the report presents
a hypothetical timeline showing when the top ten disruption, (roughly, those in
the upper right quadrant of the above chart) will occur. I have not included
this timeline as I think it’s misleadingly precise about highly speculative opinion-based
numbers.
